MyDD :: HRC would be losing right now

HRC would be losing right now

by yellowdem1129, Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 08:45:25 AM EST

I think many HRC voters are viewing the Obama campaign with an idea that Hillary would be doing better were she the nominee. Some thought and continue to think, Obama may need to add Hillary as VP to give him the best (maybe only?) chance to win.

I disagree with this.

Were Hillary the nominee, we would have 3 or 4 more "did you hear what Bill Clinton said?", and "Former President back in hot water again" type stories.

The press views Clinton through their own personal issues and can't resist the love/hate relationship that is totally irrelevant to the election, but nonetheless would dominate it.

Hillary also would have had so many staffing and advisor issues that her ability to lead would be questioned. Whatever you might think of Hillary, and I thought much:

The fact that Hillary chose such a bad campaign leadership is distressing. It's hard to imagine a person planning for so long to be "ready on day one", yet her very first major decisions about staff were almost all wrong.

It's true that no one could have anticipated Obama's rise, but everyone who either runs or even observes Presidential politics knows to EXPECT SOMETHING NO ONE EVER THOUGHT OF--THAT MATTERS MORE THAN ANYTHING.

So the number one thing you must do as a potential candidate is to position yourself to be ready for anything. It is good practice for being POTUS.

Hillary failed that critical test. So to think she would have all of sudden turned that around in this General Election is not credible.

Right now:

Obama 45 Mccain 44 ---my guess if HRC had won

HRC 42 McCain 46

Accompanied by the requisite, is "hillary too polarizing" and "many congressional dems so no thanks to Hillary invite".

Obama has a chance to make mistakes and re-engineer his campaign while others give him the benefit of the doubt. HRC would not be given that courtesy.

So as we go forward, I'm still expected Obama to have a blowout win because, right now we are seeing a mirage. Obama's biggest advantage is his appeal to unlikely voters in the election season. Right now, we aren't in the election season. There aren't any votes, and therefore no point to rally people up.

As Democrats we just need to do the basics: win the battle of ideas, present a positive vision for America, continue registering people, and then ride a rising tide in November.

Obama is a top prize fighter waiting for the fight to begin, but it doesn't really happen for another 3 months. His task now is to simply get to the opening bell in good shape.

While HRC was a great candidate, she didn't know enough to prepare properly, so stop looking at how green the grass could have been on the HRC side.

Obama was/is the democrats best hope this year.
I say that because he won.

Tags: craig farmer, newliberals, hillary clinton, obama, democratic party (all tags)

Permalink :: 33 Comments :: Post a Comment

America is more racist than sexist. (2.00 / 1)

That's a fact. An unpleasant fact, but a fact.
We didn't give racists a veto over who we nominated, which is to our party's credit. But, the relative strength of racism in society will ultimately decide this contest. The whole "did he just call me a racist?" bs from McCain last week, which the MSM ran with to the exclusion of all else, was just chapter one.
PS - Thus, Edwards would be up by 10.

John McCain says he would stay in Iraq for 100 years? That's crazy talk!

by kosnomore on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:01:32 AM EST

Re: America is more racist than sexist. (none / 0)

If Edwards were the nominee, we'd be hearing nothing but paternity allegations right now. The MSM was going to find some narrative to set against our nominee no matter whom we went with.

by Jay R on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

America vote for a white good looking horn dog? (none / 0)

Never!
LOL
Seriously, if the sexual allegations against Clinton in '92 were made against Obama today, he's be at 25%. Why the difference? RACISM and racist memes.

John McCain says he would stay in Iraq for 100 years? That's crazy talk!

by kosnomore on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:38:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: America vote for a white good looking horn dog (none / 0)

Oh, I'm not saying there isn't a racist meme undercutting this entire election. Far from it: I'm saying that if the candidate were a white horn dog (not that I think JRE is one), we'd be getting a whole different set of memes, just as regularly.

If the sexual allegations against Clinton in '92 were made against Obama today, his numbers would indeed plummet. But they aren't. However, if they were made against a presumptive nominee Edwards today, then his numbers would be around where Obama's are. You're speculating on what could have happened to Obama's numbers given a hypothetical meme, and I'm speculating on what could have happened to Edwards's numbers given the current meme with 1,000 times more exposure. We're not on different pages, just examining the same phenomenon from different angles.

by Jay R on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:18:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's true (none / 0)

but what cowards we would be if we told African-Americans "sorry, we can nominate you, too many racists"

Maybe America is too racist for Obama, but if that's the case, then they will get what they deserve with McCain.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 02:55:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (2.00 / 3)

You have no polls to back this up right. I assume you are unaware of the only survey to my knowledge which was taken which showed Hillary at 48% to McCain's 40, and Obama and McCain tied at 46%. This was a Rasmussen survey of 2 weeks ago.

by handsomegent on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:21:23 AM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

That's because Hillary is out of the news.

The diarist is right. Hillary would be getting hit with tons of negative press now. And some of it would seep through to the electorate.

Yes, she can fight back. And she played the sympathy card very well. But it would be a dogfight.

by elrod on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:46:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

Right or wrong, doesn't seem to matter much right now, unless you have the goal of provoking a fight within the Democratic Party. We have a nominee and a damned good one. And can everybody hand in their "cards" so we can talk like real people?

by niksder on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:10:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (2.00 / 1)

Wrong--she got the BIGGEST negative tag of them all, a LOSER, and is still beating McCain at least in this poll. Not bad for someone so "polarizing". By the by, have you seen the results of this poll on "the place for politics" ie MSNBC?

by handsomegent on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:10:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

Logic... flawed... brain... exploding...

by Cincinnatus on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

What's illogical about what I said? NOTHING!!!

by handsomegent on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 05:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

Well if you capitalize it and use three exclamation points, it must be true.

by Cincinnatus on Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 01:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's diary is very telling (2.00 / 1)

The fact that you wrote it at all says it all, it seems to me that YOU are having doubts and you are trying to convince yourself.

Well whatever works for you...

by TaiChiMaster on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:33:10 AM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

how is this helpful?

an electoral landslide with everyone except the hanging on, hillary is 44, palin is 45, sweeties.

by Doug Tuttle on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:35:28 AM EST

because everyone thinks obama should be up big (none / 0)

and that any generic dem would be up big, so something is wrong.

I've come to the conclusion that nothing is wrong.
This is politics.

Even in a big Dem year, Obama was going to be in a close race at this time due to unlikely voters tuning out.
They will tune back in,

and in the meantime I trying to head-off the
"he's in trouble, narrative" or that
"he needs Hillary or a supporrter" to help him.

by yellowdem1129 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

if she were the nominee, (none / 0)

Bill Clinton would just be campaigning, not gaffing like in the primary. Also, the idea that she'd be losing is bogus. Obama is losing because he doesn't hit back, and the accusations that get thrown at him are damaging. The kind of accusations thrown at Hillary are much less hurtful ones. No one would care if Bill were cheating, as they did not thru his Presidency. No one would question her patriotism or call her "risky" which is a word shrouded in racism, and also calls him inexperienced at the same time. Stop the bogus.

by Lakrosse on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:04:05 AM EST

Re: if she were the nominee, (none / 0)

Risky is a word associated with lack of experience.

If Colin Powell were running for President you would never hear risky, or any allegations that he doesn't love his country.

Race isn't the issue.

by dtaylor2 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:46:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: if she were the nominee, (none / 0)

You really think no one would question her patriotism? Really?

by Cincinnatus on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

Glad you said that. I completely agree. We'd be learning things about the Clintons that we have never heard before plus some of the same old same olds.

by Becky G on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:15:46 AM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

This diary is as full of nonsense as the other one. The statements you're making can be neither proved nor disproved. They're just so much hot air.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:31:39 AM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

I'm sorry but this is a troll diary.

I promise you this sort of Diary is akin to rubbing salt in a person's wounds.

If you were so interesting in supporting your candidate and keeping Hillary out of it, why in the heck would you bring something--not unlike--Clinton bashing up again.

I tell you--if this what Obama or his supporters are going to use to convince Clinton supporters to vote him in November, it's going to be a bumpy ride...

by Check077 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:44:10 AM EST

Hilarious (none / 0)

yellowdem1129 was one of the most outspoken Clinton supporters. Look at his diary history. I've been at odds with him just about my entire time on this site.

The fact that this Clinton supporter has come to this conclusion is, itself, reason for PUMAs to give pause and consider Obama.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:13:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilarious (none / 0)

Uh, man, I dunno, but I hear you talking...

by Check077 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:59:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

Yeah, keep on believing in that "blowout" and that reality is a mirage.

I predicted this 'but Hillary would do so much worse' dodge long ago. And the grab-allegations-out-of-my-ass rationale on which it would happen.

Just face it, the weaker and more symbolic candidate is the nominee. And it's because of people like you, who somehow maintain the fiction that this better and that we better not have too much real change.

by killjoy on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 10:49:56 AM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

No, I won't just face that. And you know why? BECAUSE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE SUPPORTING IT. It is your OPINION.

by Cincinnatus on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm impressed (2.00 / 1)

You and I don't agree on much, but I'm impressed that you came to this conclusion, yellowdem1129.

I don't think we really need to dwell on the issue much now that the conventions are close and Obama will be the official nominee soon enough, but there is meaning in strong Clinton supporters acknowledging that things wouldn't be easy even with their favored candidate.

I think Clinton could win the general election even with the full weight of the smear machine going after her, but it wouldn't be the cakewalk that some are suggesting.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:17:42 AM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

It's the Electoral College, stupid! Obama is kicking ass and taking names in the state polling. The lasest figures last week improved his delegate spread. He has more than the 270 needed to win. Look at FiveThirtyEight.com if you don't believe me.

I think Hillary or Obama would be winning in the Electoral College right now. I don't even know why people bother with daily tracking polls. That is not how this election is decided.

Hillary and Bill fought so hard because they knew this was the year that the Democratic candidate was going to win. They didn't truly believe Obama couldn't win it, they were just grasping at straws.

Even this latest tracking poll is relatively positive. McCain's numbers are static. Yes, he has succeeded in driving down Obama's, but they are not driving his own numbers up past 44. His support is pretty much topped out, and has only minor fluctuatons.

by Lolis on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 12:38:42 PM EST

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

I completely disagree yellowdem.

Hillary would have taken mccain up on his offer to do town halls together so she could obliterate him.

you would not know which hillary would show up....

the butterfly: "I'm honored to be here with Barack Obama" or "he is likeable"

the bee: "I was fighting those special interests when you were representing your slumlord Rezko"...

Hillary would be making an effective argument on the issues.

So - the media may want to bring up Bill Clinton's love life, but Hillary would also be pointing out that the media is holding her to a different standard......

Listen, Hillay is an attack dog, a pit bull.....

while they were busy saying she's "polarizing"...

she'd be busy making the case for healthcare, her energy policy and she would have NO PROBLEM attacking McCain and the republicans about where they stood on EVERYTHING these last 8 years....

So - I think the opposite. I think her poll numbers would be rising.

by nikkid on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:01:32 PM EST

I see implied in many diaries now that (none / 0)

HRC is either needed now or if things continue this way, she would be needed.

I disagree because we are looking at a static picture that would change the moment HRC is VP nominee.

Obama is doing fine if he can stay clear of playing the "race game" where if he is losing or loses, it is because of race.

I reject that. No matter what McCain does, Obama can and should win.

HRC was my candidate but she lost and deservedly so.

This diary is a recognition of that from a big supporter.

by yellowdem1129 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you know what (none / 0)

fair or unfair, people didn't like Hillary when she attacked.

Another example of IOKIYAR

The media would be spinning her retaliations as "mean, evil spirited" and any other codeword they can find for "blood-sucking bitch"

That's the reality we live in.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 02:58:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

A town hall with McCain is BAAAAAD idea.

As we've seen, Republicans control attendance to their events very, VERY tightly, making 100% certain that only the loyalty-oath hardliners get in the door. On the flip side, Democrats even take questions from protesters. (Case in point: Tampa last week.)

There's no way to hold a fair town hall with a Republican where the Democratic candidate isn't at a major disadvantage. Obama is right to stay away from an unnecessary public hit job by the opposition that would feed the cable pundits all the way to November. (And if Hilary is as smart a politician as most people believe, she would have, too.)

McSame '08: Against All Hope - and Proud of It

by Its All So Goofy on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 07:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HRC would be losing right now (none / 0)

I thought HRC dropped out weeks ago. Time to move on from the primary contest.

Dizzy Zzyzzy

by Zzyzzy on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:53:34 PM EST

Completely disagree... (none / 0)

on the basis of nothing, it's pretty clear that she would be announcing her breakthrough cure for breast cancer by now.

While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama

by bowiegeek on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:52:32 PM EST

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